Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 1.930834 2.036653 2.147439 2.272470 2.410141 2.557663 2.728436
2025-04-20 1.784154 1.932689 2.095430 2.288434 2.513047 2.768696 3.085380
2025-04-27 1.700893 1.877808 2.078140 2.324729 2.624339 2.982456 3.452419
2025-05-04 1.638218 1.835957 2.065858 2.357623 2.725292 3.184011 3.818571
2025-05-11 1.563386 1.771940 2.019317 2.340776 2.757753 3.296522 4.075826
2025-05-18 1.501563 1.718333 1.979926 2.326979 2.788950 3.405308 4.335296
2025-05-25 1.445862 1.668267 1.940673 2.308677 2.809934 3.498506 4.579414
2025-06-01 1.396134 1.622570 1.903574 2.289396 2.826029 3.583423 4.818164
2025-06-08 1.360259 1.592243 1.883921 2.291005 2.869482 3.709377 5.135472
2025-06-15 1.335577 1.574720 1.879425 2.311917 2.940445 3.881044 5.551393
2025-06-22 1.292762 1.531706 1.838914 2.280023 2.931141 3.926633 5.753113
2025-06-29 1.251497 1.489108 1.797008 2.243612 2.912008 3.953784 5.923450
2025-07-06 1.206624 1.440807 1.746268 2.193138 2.869853 3.942267 6.024206
2025-07-13 1.189423 1.428662 1.744166 2.212428 2.935907 4.115922 6.517102
2025-07-20 1.178714 1.424606 1.752676 2.247152 3.027957 4.342800 7.167115
2025-07-27 1.167469 1.419235 1.758840 2.278269 3.115932 4.571773 7.877908
2025-08-03 1.141939 1.393377 1.734938 2.262360 3.124769 4.655659 8.268854
2025-08-10 1.118763 1.370025 1.713689 2.249325 3.137216 4.747095 8.700664
2025-08-17 1.095553 1.345926 1.690478 2.232028 3.140954 4.821531 9.107241
2025-08-24 1.073260 1.322477 1.667397 2.213801 3.141693 4.889729 9.515511
2025-08-31 1.057827 1.308208 1.657161 2.215322 3.177090 5.032165 10.182981
2025-09-07 1.048312 1.301974 1.658405 2.235091 3.246272 5.253577 11.177530
2025-09-14 1.025401 1.276082 1.629691 2.204938 3.222094 5.269797 11.501642